It bugs me that economists, political pundits, and weather men regularly made predictions, but they were never graded on the accuracy of those predictions. For a time, I even tracked like five different weather men to gauge who was the most accurate. During 2020, I noticed that I was making a lot of predictions (like pretty much everyone else) so I figured it would be fun to track my own accuracy.
After two years of making predictions, here’s what I have learned about prognosticating:
Predict what you can control
If I am the main factor in determining whether or not the prediction is accurate, that prediction has good odds of being correct. There is probably a life lesson here about focusing on what is in your realm of influence instead of on those factors that you can’t control.
Know your bias
I’m horrible about picking sports winners and losers because of my bias towards the Bills and other teams. If you make a prediction in an area where you have an emotional bias, chances are you will be wrong.
Make a lot of predictions
In all the areas where I felt fairly qualified to make predictions (economy, UMC, politics, etc.), I was really just throwing the dice. In all those areas, the experts are hit and miss. Why should I assume I’ll do any better. The best way to beat the odds…throw a lot of dice. I make ten predictions because I’m almost guaranteed to have a few more turn out correct.
Below are my predictions for 2023. I’ll check in on this next year!
- 2022 Predictions: http://jctaccounting.com/2021/12/31/top-10-predictions-for-2022/